If it feels like the stock market has been on an inexorable tear for the past year or two, that’s because it has been. The S&P 500 was up nearly 90% as of October 2025 from its October 2022 low, one of the fastest recoveries on record. Tech stocks are flying high, AI optimism is running hot, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has finally turned the corner toward cutting rates.
We’ll break down the 14 major bull markets the S&P 500 has experienced since 1932, how they started, what fueled them, how they ended, and how they performed. The past is never a perfect guide to the future, but in a market cycle as long as the U.S. bull or bear market records, there are patterns to be found.
The Patterns of Bulls and Bears
For our analysis, we define a “bull market” as a 20% or greater increase in the S&P 500 from a relevant low that lasts until the next 20% decline. This is a standard, “rigorous” definition of a bull market used by major market research firms like First Trust, Stifel, etc., and provides a neat set of on- and off-ramps to identify discrete cycles of market optimism since the Great Depression.
Our data includes all 14 bull markets for the S&P 500 since 1932, with the following characteristics:
- Duration: the length in months of the bull market from start to end.
- Cumulative gain: the total percent return for the index during the bull.
- Median annualized return: the median monthly return of the index during the bull, annualized for comparison to the typical 12-month calendar year.
The following table shows the historical bull market average for these key measures:
The 14 S&P 500 Bull Markets Since 1932
| # | Bull Market Period | Duration (Years) | Cumulative Return | Primary Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1932 – 1937 | 4.8 | +325% | Great Depression recovery, New Deal optimism |
| 2 | 1942 – 1946 | 4.3 | +158% | WWII production boom |
| 3 | 1949 – 1956 | 7.2 | +267% | Post-war expansion |
| 4 | 1957 – 1961 | 3.9 | +86% | Eisenhower recovery, corporate growth |
| 5 | 1962 – 1966 | 3.9 | +79% | Early 60s boom, space race spending |
| 6 | 1970 – 1973 | 2.5 | +73% | Inflationary rebound, Nifty Fifty stocks |
| 7 | 1974 – 1980 | 5.8 | +125% | Energy sector growth, post-recession rebound |
| 8 | 1982 – 1987 | 4.8 | +229% | Reaganomics, falling rates |
| 9 | 1987 – 2000 | 12.3 | +582% | Tech revolution, productivity gains |
| 10 | 2002 – 2007 | 5.0 | +102% | Housing boom, easy credit |
| 11 | 2009 – 2020 | 10.8 | +400%+ | Post-GFC recovery, QE liquidity |
| 12 | 2020 – 2022 | 1.9 | +114% | Pandemic rebound, stimulus-driven surge |
| 13 | 2022 – Present (2025) | 3.0 (so far) | +90% (so far) | AI revolution, monetary easing expectations |
| 14 | Pending continuation | — | — | — |
By Duration: Halfway
As you can see, the bull market that started in October 2022 and continues today has a number of interesting characteristics. Its duration, median return, and cumulative gain all stack up against the 14-bull market average in different ways:
- Duration: ~3.2 years
- Cumulative gain: ~90%
- Median annualized return: ~31%
- By Duration: Early-Stage by Historic Standards, but Middle-of-the-Pack
The current bull has only lasted for just over 3 years. That is below the average (~4.9 years) for all 14 historical bull markets and ranks near the bottom:
However, the current bull isn’t exceptionally short, nor has it already exceeded the durations of past cycles:
In terms of raw duration, then, we’re likely still in the early innings of this bull market. It has room to run by the standards of history.
By Returns: Also Early-Stage, with Plenty of Room to the Top
Returns so far have been high by historic standards but still below the peak:
The 90% cumulative gain for the current bull is well below the 177% average. This cycle’s +5.1% median annualized return is just above the 5% historical median. All this indicates the current bull has considerable potential for additional upside.
A natural question is: if the current cycle has a lot of room to run by duration and return, when might it stop? History offers two key signals that a bull market is in its death throes:
- Rate hikes stop: Historically, bull markets often end when the Fed starts cutting rates in response to weakness. But today’s rate cuts are preemptive, aimed at normalizing policy rather than fighting a recession — a subtle but crucial difference that may support this bull’s longevity.
- Valuations extend fully: Valuations like Shiller CAPE don’t fully peak until the end of bull markets. S&P 500 P/E ratios are high today but not yet at all-time highs.
The early 2000 and 2021 corrections broke both of these rules, so history doesn’t always repeat. But until one of these signs flashes, it’s reasonable to expect more room for the current bull.
Comparing Macroeconomic Conditions
| Period | Interest Rate Environment | Inflation | Fiscal / Monetary Policy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1932–1937 | Ultra-low rates | Deflationary | New Deal stimulus |
| 1982–1987 | Rates falling from highs | Disinflation | Reagan tax cuts |
| 2009–2020 | Zero rates, QE | Low inflation | Quantitative easing |
| 2022–2025 | High → falling | Disinflation phase | Rate cuts expected |
The Big Story of This Bull: AI Leadership, Concentration, and Narrative
One final place to compare bulls is in their sector and stock leadership. What sectors led each bull, and what percentage of the S&P 500 market capitalization did they account for?
For the current bull market, it is well-defined:
- In 2025, the seven magnificent tech companies account for over 33% of the S&P 500 market cap, a historical extreme for leadership concentration by a handful of stocks.
This ratio is far higher than any other bull market on record.
The central story of this bull market is not “rate cuts and easy monetary policy” or “housing credit” or “computing power,” which have been the themes of previous big rallies.
The core reason is a powerful combination of:
- The power of the “Magnificent Seven” megacap stocks, which have now led 3 of the last 4 U.S. bull markets.
- AI optimism driving investor psychology toward high-growth AI infrastructure and computing stocks.
- AI infrastructure growth generating real revenue and earnings power, not just AI hype.
All that said, let’s compare this bull to previous ones across some key data points.
Longest and Strongest Bulls on Record
| Rank | Period | Duration (Years) | Total Return | Ending Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1987 – 2000 | 12.3 | +582% | Dot-com bust |
| 2 | 2009 – 2020 | 10.8 | +400% | COVID-19 shock |
| 3 | 1949 – 1956 | 7.2 | +267% | Recession |
| 4 | 1982 – 1987 | 4.8 | +229% | Black Monday crash |
| 5 | 1932 – 1937 | 4.8 | +325% | 1937 recession |
Similarities Between Today’s Bull and Historical Ones
Not all bull runs are created equal, of course. There are both situational differences and macroeconomic markers between the current bull and historical ones.
The tailwinds at the beginning of the 2025 bull market, like multiple rate hikes and a 5% S&P 500 P/E ratio, are quite different than those in 2009, 1991, or 1982. However, there are also some critical similarities:
- Slow Rate Cuts So Far: The Fed’s target range has only softened modestly since the 2022 peak (dropping from 4.25–4.50% to 4.00–4.25%), not 325 bps. Meanwhile, Fed dot plots suggest many participants expect rates to drift down to 3.50%–3.75% by end-2025, though some still maintain projections near 4.25%. That leaves some room for easing.
- Monetary Policy in Transition Phase: The current Fed is not easing (yet) but has signaled it’s moving from restrictive to neutral. This is a transition phase like 1982 and 1991.
- Investment Thesis Driven by Core Earnings, Not Monetary Stimulus: Unlike QE-fueled 2009–2020, this bull is based on investment in AI infrastructure that has real revenue and earnings growth potential. Higher CAPE multiples today are driven by growth from real AI computing, not just the Fed’s balance sheet.
- AI Innovation Curve Driving Productivity Gains: If the dot-com bubble was a bet on the long-term growth potential of the internet, this bull market is a bet on the coming AI productivity gains. Each new era of human-machine productivity, be it electrification, computers, or AI, has eventually created enough investment and consumption to power strong equity markets.
The current bull is not the best by historical standards of cumulative return and duration, but it does have some fundamental advantages. AI growth, market leadership by high-flying megacaps, and ample room to run on valuation multiples set up good tailwinds for further upside.
Final Thoughts on the 2025 Bull Market
The bull market we’re in is not the strongest, longest, or most liquid in history. But it is a high-conviction event with extremely focused leadership and narrative.
The center of this bull is a virtuous cycle of investment and consumption in AI innovation. The strong economic thesis is underpinned by AI corporations making hundreds of billions of dollars in capital investments in chips and data centers.
By most of the technical measures above, this bull also has plenty of room to run by the S&P 500’s historic rally averages.
Which means investors should have both their stop-losses and upside targets on. Because like all bull markets, this one is a market cycle in its own right.
It will likely both rise and fall faster than the 90-year trend.
If history is any guide, though, we are in the middle innings of the current rally, not the bottom or the top.
Stay healthy, and invest safely!
Keep learning: courses on this topic
Self-paced courses to put this article into practice.
Udemy
How to Invest in Stocks, Mutual Funds & ETFs for Beginners
Are you ready to take charge of your own investment accounts? Make informed decisions about how to manage your money and let it work for…
View course
Udemy
Investing For Beginners: How To Invest With Confidence
This Course is for you if ...1. You know nothing about investing.2. You are new to stock market investing and looking for a place to…
View course
Udemy
How To Invest In Stocks In 15 Minutes?
This is for anyone who wants a quick lesson on stocks and want to start trading stocks today—Within 15 minutes. This beginner guide will…
View course
Leave a Comment