{"id":2078,"date":"2026-09-28T01:24:19","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T01:24:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/?p=2078"},"modified":"2026-09-28T01:24:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T01:24:21","slug":"tom-lee-predictions-track-record","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/tom-lee-predictions-track-record\/","title":{"rendered":"Tom Lee’s Predictions Track Record: How Accurate Are His S&P 500 Calls?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>

Tom Lee is one of the most visible bulls on Wall Street. If you watch financial TV or follow year-ahead strategist targets, you have probably heard Fundstrat’s head of research call for higher S&P 500 prices \u2014 again. The fair question for US investors is not whether he is optimistic. It is whether Tom Lee’s predictions track record<\/strong> is strong enough to treat his targets as a planning input.<\/p>\n

Short answer:<\/strong> Lee’s recent year-end S&P 500 calls make a mixed but genuinely interesting scorecard. Scored on his last formally published year-end target, he landed within about 3% of the actual close in 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024<\/strong>. His clear miss was 2022<\/strong>, when he stayed bullish through a bear market. In 2025<\/strong> the market finished above his published 6,600 target, while his more aggressive late-year TV calls (7,200\u20137,500) overshot. Like other high-profile strategists, he revises targets during the year \u2014 so “accuracy” depends on whether you score his initial<\/strong> outlook, his final published<\/strong> number, or his latest on-air comment.<\/p>\n

This article is a sourced track-record review in the same spirit as our Michael Burry predictions track record<\/a> post: hits, misses, patterns, and what US investors should (and should not) do with the forecasts. It is education, not a buy or sell recommendation.<\/p>\n

Who is Tom Lee (Fundstrat)?<\/h2>\n

Thomas “Tom” Lee is a co-founder and managing partner of Fundstrat Global Advisors<\/strong> and serves as its head of research. He launched the independent research boutique in September 2014<\/strong> after roughly 15 years at J.P. Morgan, where he had been chief equity strategist (PR Newswire founding announcement, Sep. 15, 2014).<\/p>\n

Media shorthand often labels him a perma-bull<\/strong>. That reputation is directionally fair \u2014 his year-ahead S&P 500 targets usually sit on the optimistic side of Wall Street consensus, and his biggest documented misses (2015, 2018, 2022) were too high<\/strong>. The nuance matters: “always bullish” is not the same as “always wrong.” In several recent bull years his starting<\/em> target actually turned out too low, and the market forced him to raise it.<\/p>\n

Lee also comments frequently on themes that matter to retail investors \u2014 liquidity, inflation, AI\/tech leadership, and crypto. Those thematic calls can be interesting context, but this article scores what is easiest to audit: dated S&P 500 year-end targets versus official year-end closes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

How we scored the track record<\/h2>\n

Wall Street “accuracy” headlines often compare apples to oranges. We used simple, transparent rules:<\/p>\n