{"id":1753,"date":"2025-10-13T07:59:50","date_gmt":"2025-10-13T07:59:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/?p=1753"},"modified":"2025-10-13T07:59:52","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T07:59:52","slug":"why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the Stock Market Dropped After Trump\u2019s Tariff Tweet \u2014 And Why Investors Shouldn\u2019t Panic"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;\" class=\"sharethis-inline-share-buttons\" ><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), last Friday was a wild one.&nbsp;The index finished down 2.71%, marking its worst one-day percentage decline since late April.&nbsp;The reason?&nbsp;Former President Donald Trump\u2019s 100% tariff increases on \u201cChyNA\u201d and the potential cancellation of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The subsequent plunge in equities has sent the S&amp;P 500 back toward its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/e\/ema.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"40-day exponential moving average (EMA)\">40-day exponential moving average (EMA)<\/a> \u2014 a popular place for short-term support in a market pullback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sound familiar?&nbsp;You can\u2019t predict when the next correction will occur, but it always occurs when most people least expect it.&nbsp;Short-term volatility will always scare many investors.&nbsp;But if you keep a level head, the 40-day EMA can serve as a quality buying opportunity when fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) push prices lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_89 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs\/#The_Market_Panic_Script_Trump_Edition\" >The Market Panic Script: Trump Edition<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs\/#Why_I_Love_Macro-Driven_Selloffs\" >Why I Love Macro-Driven Selloffs<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs\/#The_Rational_Investors_Checklist_When_Corrections_Occur\" >The Rational Investor\u2019s Checklist When Corrections Occur<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs\/#1_Invest_in_high-quality_businesses\" >1.&nbsp;Invest in high-quality businesses<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs\/#2_Buy_below_your_intrinsic_value\" >2.&nbsp;Buy below your intrinsic value<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs\/#3_Stay_away_from_leverage\" >3.&nbsp;Stay away from leverage<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs\/#4_Diversify_across_10%E2%80%9320_quality_stocks\" >4.&nbsp;Diversify across 10\u201320 quality stocks<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs\/#5_Average_into_quality_companies_when_you_can\" >5.\u00a0Average into quality companies when you can<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs\/#Why_Value_Investors_Win_in_the_Long_Run\" >Why Value Investors Win in the Long Run<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/why-stock-market-dropped-trump-tariffs\/#Final_Thoughts_Stay_Rational_and_Stay_Invested\" >Final Thoughts: Stay Rational and Stay Invested<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Market_Panic_Script_Trump_Edition\"><\/span>The Market Panic Script: Trump Edition<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you invest long enough, you realize that market cycles really do rhyme, if not repeat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Step 1:<\/strong> Trump tweets out something inflammatory, whether it\u2019s calling an assassination into question or proposing an absurd tariff.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Step 2:<\/strong> Markets sell off for a few days.\u00a0Unprofitable algorithmic trading and margin calls punish those who are overleveraged or simply let their emotions get the best of them.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Step 3:<\/strong> Commentators and advisors like Bessent flood the airwaves trying to reassure everyone, going out of their way to spin how President Trump is \u201cflexing his strategic brilliance.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Step 4: <\/strong>Trump reverses course or secures a \u201cdeal.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Step 5:<\/strong> Markets rebound and often post new all-time highs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sound like a broken record?&nbsp;It\u2019s basically the same story, only with different headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a long-term investor, I welcome these brief bouts of market madness.&nbsp;They serve as catalysts for investors to be \u201call in\u201d by buying high-quality businesses that may get temporarily punished for something completely unrelated to their long-term fundamentals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_I_Love_Macro-Driven_Selloffs\"><\/span>Why I Love Macro-Driven Selloffs<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When markets plunge over political developments or media-driven sentiment, they\u2019re rarely responding to any new information about company fundamentals.&nbsp;The business, its profit, its free cash flow, and its competitive advantages are all still there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s why these are the exact times where rational value investors who focus on fundamentals have a massive advantage.&nbsp;While many get gripped by fear and lock up in cash, long-term investors accumulate at a discount, all while quality businesses compound earnings right under their noses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s use <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/stocks\/unitedhealth-stock-calculator\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"UnitedHealth Group (UNH) \">UnitedHealth Group (UNH) <\/a>as an example.\u00a0The healthcare services giant dropped 3.59% on Friday, yet what does UNH have to do with tariffs on China?\u00a0Tariffs have no direct impact on the healthcare insurance industry and UNH doesn\u2019t import medical devices from Shenzhen or depend on manufacturing from China.\u00a0Yet, emotions and momentum traders sent UNH along for the algorithmic plunge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are few other situations where the gap between a company\u2019s long-term fundamental value and its short-term market price is more extreme.&nbsp;If you buy high-quality companies and hold long enough, these short-term, non-fundamental-driven market drawdowns should end up being a very blip on the screen of your long-term returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Rational_Investors_Checklist_When_Corrections_Occur\"><\/span>The Rational Investor\u2019s Checklist When Corrections Occur<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market corrections are normal and even necessary.&nbsp;They re-prime market valuations and clear out speculative froth.&nbsp;But if you react emotionally and haphazardly, you risk creating your own speculative froth, one that could become permanent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How do you avoid this and keep investing rationally during volatility and corrections?&nbsp;I use this checklist:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_Invest_in_high-quality_businesses\"><\/span>1.&nbsp;Invest in high-quality businesses<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, I only buy strong, long-term businesses with durable economic moats, consistent profitability, and high return on equity.&nbsp;Those are the companies that can withstand bouts of volatility and continue compounding earnings during good and bad times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_Buy_below_your_intrinsic_value\"><\/span>2.&nbsp;Buy below your intrinsic value<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Buying has to make sense relative to your understanding of the company\u2019s value.&nbsp;Wait for the price to drop below your intrinsic value estimate (with a nice margin of safety) and buy near or at key technical support levels if you can.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Don\u2019t chase prices \u2014 wait for better prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"3_Stay_away_from_leverage\"><\/span>3.&nbsp;Stay away from leverage<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The biggest mistake any investor can make in a volatile market is to use leverage.&nbsp;If you buy on margin, you\u2019ll get forced out of a position if volatility spikes, even if you\u2019re holding the best business in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stay away from leverage to play high-quality businesses, no matter how much volatility spikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"4_Diversify_across_10%E2%80%9320_quality_stocks\"><\/span>4.&nbsp;Diversify across 10\u201320 quality stocks<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No one knows in advance which industry or sector will outperform.&nbsp;And while diversification is far from a \u201cwinning\u201d strategy (nobody knows that either), it\u2019s usually the best way to reduce idiosyncratic risk (company-specific risk) while maintaining broad exposure to multiple compounding machines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"5_Average_into_quality_companies_when_you_can\"><\/span>5.\u00a0Average into quality companies when you can<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can\u2019t know or predict the bottom.&nbsp;Nobody can.&nbsp;That\u2019s why a margin of safety is so important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead of waiting for the exact bottom, the smarter move is to add small positions as prices approach key support zones or when you spot early price reversal patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You never want to catch a falling knife, but that also doesn\u2019t mean you should wait for macro conditions to be \u201cright\u201d to buy quality businesses at a discount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Remember: Markets have a memory longer than the news cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Value_Investors_Win_in_the_Long_Run\"><\/span>Why Value Investors Win in the Long Run<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market moves over the short term are usually an emotional overreaction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But over time, stock prices tend to revert to the mean and reflect the intrinsic value of the business behind them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is why the stock market can feel so dull.&nbsp;While short-term traders panic over Trump\u2019s tweets or a headline over a temporary trade war, long-term investors compound wealth through discipline and rationality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you buy companies that generate consistent free cash flow and that have durable moats, volatility is your friend.&nbsp;In fact, it\u2019s what presents you with an opportunity to buy more of what you love, at an even deeper discount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Final_Thoughts_Stay_Rational_and_Stay_Invested\"><\/span>Final Thoughts: Stay Rational and Stay Invested<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Friday\u2019s selloff was not the end of the bull market.&nbsp;In fact, it\u2019s nothing more than another chapter in the never-ending saga between politics and the markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, instead of panicking, the smart move is to stay disciplined, diversified, and data-driven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next couple of days will likely see more volatility, but remember, the fundamentals of a great business do not change because of one tweet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In fact, the news and media-driven market volatility over short-term events are the very reason long-term investing works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While most sell in fear, you\u2019re calmly collecting more quality \u2014 and that\u2019s how you build true wealth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), last Friday was a wild one.&nbsp;The index finished down 2.71%, marking its worst&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1754,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","article","has-background","has-excerpt","has-avatar","has-author","has-date","has-comment-count","has-category-meta","has-read-more","has-post-media","thumbnail-"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.5 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta 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