{"id":1736,"date":"2025-10-01T03:24:58","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T03:24:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/?p=1736"},"modified":"2025-10-01T03:25:01","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T03:25:01","slug":"do-us-government-shutdowns-hurt-the-stock-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/do-us-government-shutdowns-hurt-the-stock-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Do U.S. Government Shutdowns Hurt the Stock Market?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;\" class=\"sharethis-inline-share-buttons\" ><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A U.S. government shutdown occurs when Congress can\u2019t pass or the President won\u2019t sign appropriations bills needed to fund the government.&nbsp;The last one occurred from December 2018 to January 2019, and one is looming in late 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The shutdowns are always major news events, with countdown clocks on the news, finger-pointing between Democrats and Republicans, and concerns about the impact on public services and employees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As an investor, you may be wondering what a shutdown means for your portfolio.&nbsp;The answer is, it depends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On one hand, shutdowns do create headlines and a certain amount of short-term market volatility.&nbsp;They reflect a dysfunctional political climate in Washington, which is not great for market sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But if you look at the long-term performance of the stock market during shutdowns, you\u2019ll see a very different story.&nbsp;In fact, history suggests there is usually no impact\u2014or even a positive impact\u2014on the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_89 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/do-us-government-shutdowns-hurt-the-stock-market\/#Shutdowns_Are_a_Regular_Occurrence\" >Shutdowns Are a Regular Occurrence<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/do-us-government-shutdowns-hurt-the-stock-market\/#Shutdown_Lengths_Vary_Greatly\" >Shutdown Lengths Vary Greatly<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/do-us-government-shutdowns-hurt-the-stock-market\/#Shutdowns_Little_or_No_Impact_on_the_Stock_Market\" >Shutdowns: Little or No Impact on the Stock Market<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/do-us-government-shutdowns-hurt-the-stock-market\/#Remember_Investors_Are_Long-Term_Investors\" >Remember: Investors Are Long-Term Investors<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/do-us-government-shutdowns-hurt-the-stock-market\/#Shutdowns_Affect_Different_Sectors_Differently\" >Shutdowns Affect Different Sectors Differently<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/do-us-government-shutdowns-hurt-the-stock-market\/#The_Bottom_Line_on_Shutdowns\" >The Bottom Line on Shutdowns<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/do-us-government-shutdowns-hurt-the-stock-market\/#The_2021_Shutdown_Update_Dont_Let_Politics_Keep_You_Up_At_Night\" >The 2021 Shutdown Update: Don\u2019t Let Politics Keep You Up At Night<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/do-us-government-shutdowns-hurt-the-stock-market\/#Conclusion_Keep_a_Long-Term_Perspective\" >Conclusion: Keep a Long-Term Perspective<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Shutdowns_Are_a_Regular_Occurrence\"><\/span>Shutdowns Are a Regular Occurrence<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It may surprise you to learn just how often <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Government_shutdowns_in_the_United_States\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"U.S. government shutdowns \">U.S. government shutdowns <\/a>have occurred over the past few decades.\u00a0In fact, since 1976, the U.S. has experienced nearly two dozen government shutdowns of various lengths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s because the appropriations process in Congress can be quite contentious, and sometimes lawmakers can\u2019t agree on a budget before the deadline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shutdowns also happen when there are divided government, with different parties controlling Congress and the White House.&nbsp;This has been the case for much of the past two decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Shutdown_Lengths_Vary_Greatly\"><\/span>Shutdown Lengths Vary Greatly<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shutdowns can last anywhere from one day to several weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The longest shutdown in U.S. history occurred from December 2018 to January 2019, and lasted 34 days.&nbsp;Other recent long shutdowns include the 21-day shutdown in 2013 and the 16-day shutdown in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, most shutdowns are much shorter, often lasting just a few days or even less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Shutdowns_Little_or_No_Impact_on_the_Stock_Market\"><\/span>Shutdowns: Little or No Impact on the Stock Market<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the drama of a shutdown, when you look at the data it\u2019s striking just how little impact they appear to have on the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"728\" height=\"613\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/G2Ful2JboAEkDtw.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1737\" style=\"width:800px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/G2Ful2JboAEkDtw.jpeg 728w, https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/G2Ful2JboAEkDtw-300x253.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.bearsavings.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/G2Ful2JboAEkDtw-432x364.jpeg 432w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One study by Carson Investment Research (source: FactSet) examined S&amp;P 500 returns during and after government shutdowns from 1976 to 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The results?&nbsp;The market actually finished higher 86% of the time in the year after a shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can also look at stock market performance before, during, and after individual shutdowns in history.&nbsp;Here are a few examples:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 1976 shutdown was followed by a +15% increase in the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 1980 shutdown saw a +29% gain in the market the following year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2013 shutdown was followed by a +32% increase in the S&amp;P 500 over the next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The point is, if you zoom out and look at the big picture, you won\u2019t see much of a shutdown\u2019s impact on the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The media often makes a big deal about the shutdown and its potential economic consequences.&nbsp;But investors are focused on the long-term trends in earnings and economic growth, and these bigger forces drive stock prices much more than a temporary funding lapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Remember_Investors_Are_Long-Term_Investors\"><\/span>Remember: Investors Are Long-Term Investors<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most investors are long-term investors, meaning they buy and hold stocks for years or decades.&nbsp;Shutdowns, by contrast, are short-term events that last a few days to a few weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For long-term investors, a government shutdown is just a blip on the radar.&nbsp;It may cause some short-term volatility, but it won\u2019t derail the overall trend of the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investors don\u2019t need to worry about a shutdown derailing the economy, either.&nbsp;Most government functions continue during a shutdown, and essential services like Social Security and Medicare are still funded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Shutdowns_Affect_Different_Sectors_Differently\"><\/span>Shutdowns Affect Different Sectors Differently<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, a shutdown can have a negative impact on certain sectors of the economy.&nbsp;For example, government contractors and other businesses that rely on government spending may see reduced revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, federal employees who are furloughed or working without pay during a shutdown will have less income to spend, which can hurt local businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Federal agencies may also experience backlogs and other operational challenges when they reopen, which can have an impact on the services they provide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But these sector-specific impacts are not the same thing as a broad-based stock market downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Bottom_Line_on_Shutdowns\"><\/span>The Bottom Line on Shutdowns<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shutdowns are noisy and political, but they usually don\u2019t matter for investors.&nbsp;Here\u2019s the data:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Shutdowns have little to no impact on the stock market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shutdowns rarely last long (average length of 7 days since 1976).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shutdowns don\u2019t hurt economic growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shutdowns are just a distraction from the long-term fundamentals of the market and the economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_2021_Shutdown_Update_Dont_Let_Politics_Keep_You_Up_At_Night\"><\/span>The 2021 Shutdown Update: Don\u2019t Let Politics Keep You Up At Night<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shutdowns have a number of negative economic and social consequences.&nbsp;They can hurt economic growth, increase the national debt, and cause harm to small businesses and federal employees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shutdowns also create uncertainty in financial markets, which can lead to volatility.&nbsp;But in general, this volatility is short-term and does not affect the long-term performance of the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you\u2019re an investor, there are a few things you can do during a shutdown:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Don\u2019t panic.&nbsp;Shutdowns are temporary and have historically had little to no impact on the stock market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stay focused on the long term.&nbsp;The best way to ride out any market volatility is to maintain a well-diversified portfolio that is aligned with your long-term financial goals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Look for opportunity.&nbsp;If the market does react negatively to a shutdown, it may present buying opportunities for certain stocks or sectors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pay attention to fundamentals.&nbsp;As always, focus on the fundamentals of the companies you own, and don\u2019t let short-term political noise sway your investment decisions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion_Keep_a_Long-Term_Perspective\"><\/span>Conclusion: Keep a Long-Term Perspective<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">U.S. government shutdowns are an all-too-familiar feature of our political landscape.&nbsp;The next one may be around the corner if a deal isn\u2019t reached by October 1st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But as an investor, it\u2019s important to keep things in perspective and not get too worked up about shutdowns.&nbsp;History has shown they rarely have a long-term impact on the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investors are best served by focusing on the fundamentals of the economy and the companies they own, rather than getting distracted by political drama in Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shutdowns are just noise in the long-term investment journey.&nbsp;As the data above shows, the S&amp;P 500 has historically gained in the year following a shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The best advice during a shutdown?&nbsp;Stick to your long-term investment strategy and stay disciplined.&nbsp;Over time, the market will forget about shutdowns just as it has in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The moral of the story: Don\u2019t sweat it.&nbsp;Stay invested, stay focused on the long term, and let history work in your favor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A U.S. government shutdown occurs when Congress can\u2019t pass or the President won\u2019t sign appropriations bills needed 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